AIR PASSENGER MARKET ANALYSIS JAN 2016

The global air passenger market carried strong momentum into 2016, with passenger traffic in January coming in 7.1% higher than in the same month in 2015.

全球航空客運市場2016初始依然強勁，1月較去年同期上升7.1%

Airlines have continued to react to robust travel demand by adding capacity cautiously (total available seat kilometres increased by 5.6% year-on-year in January). As a result, at 78.8% in January, the industry load factor was the highest ever recorded in the month and 1.1 percentage point higher than in the same period in 2015.

航空公司小心地增加供給(1月ASK增加5.6%)，全球載客率是歷來一月最高的78.8%，較去年同期+1.1%。


Shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year can complicate matters in Asia Pacific at this time of year. January international passenger traffic

Asia Pacific carriers recorded an increase of 10.3% compared to January 2015. Capacity rose 7.6%, pushing up load factor 2.0 percentage points to 79.2%. A 7.3% increase in the number of direct airport connections within the Asia region over the past 12 months or so has helped to stimulate demand.

農曆年使亞太區情況較複雜，但1月亞太國際旅客較去年同期+10.3%，供給+7.6%，使載客率上升2%來到79.2%。亞太區過去12個月來直航航線增加7.3%，帶動需求。



AIR FREIGHT MARKET ANALYSIS JAN 2016

global air freight markets in January showing a rise in freight tonne kilometers (FTK) of 2.7% compared to January 2015.

全球航空貨運1月FTK較去年同期+2.7%。

Total FTKs in January surpassed the previous all-time peak reached in February 2015. All regions except the smallest markets of Africa and Latin America expanded in January, but all regions reported declines in the FLF. Despite this good start, the underlying weak trade performance makes it unlikely that growth will accelerate significantly in the coming months.

全球FTK已高於去年2月達到的歷史高點，主要區域1月皆成長但載貨率皆下滑。未來因疲弱的貿易，預期成長不會加速。

Asia-Pacific carriers, which comprise almost 39% of all air freight, expanded by 1.3% year-over-year (although the international freight figure was a much lower 0.2%). The FLF fell 2.3 percentage points to 49.8%, still the highest of any region. Emerging Asia trade contracted in the second half of 2015 and in general trade to and from Asia-Pacific is weak.

佔全球近39%的最大的亞太航空公司，總量較去年同期+1.3%，國際貨量+0.2%。載貨率下跌2.3%來到49.8%，仍是各區最高。2015下半年來新興亞洲貿易萎縮

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY

After adjusting for distortions related to the rise in the US dollar over the past 18 months or so, global air fares fell by around 4-4.5% in 2015. Further falls in air fares are likely to be seen in 2016 as fuel hedging contracts unwind and the decline in oil prices seen towards the end of last year feed through;

經調整美元匯率後，2015年全球航空票價下跌約4-4.5%。預期2016將持續下跌，伴隨著油價避險契約結束、油價持續下跌。

Airline share prices increased by 4.7% in February, recovering some of the decline seen during January’s turbulence. US carriers’ share

prices saw the biggest month-on-month rise (+9.5%), while European airlines saw a smaller gain (+1.9%). By contrast, Asia Pacific was the

only region to see a further decline (0.4%).

二月航空公司股價+4.7%，從一月的下跌中回復。美國航空公司較上個月+9.5%，歐洲只有1.9%而亞太區是唯一下跌的 (0.4%)

As in previous quarters, the strongest results were posted by North American airlines, with an aggregate operating margin of around 15%, 8.4% for asia-pacific airlines.

如同前幾季，北美航空公司營業利潤率約為15%，亞太區為8.4%。

Crude oil prices have rallied in recent weeks, driven by market expectations of a tightening in supply. However, the bigger picture is that oil prices are still some 30% lower than they were this time last year;

因市場預期減少供給，近期油價回昇，但較去年同期仍減少30%。


資料來源: IATA report (中譯: )