2016年4月 IATA 月報 monthly report
AIR PASSENGER MARKET ANALYSIS April 2016
Annual growth in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) dropped to 4.6% in April – its slowest pace since January 2015. The decline was partly attributable to disruption following the Brussels terrorist attacks in March. Abstracting from this, we estimate that passenger volumes grew by around 5% year-on-year in April.
四月RPK YOY成長率下滑來到4.6%，自2015/1最低。部分由於三月的布魯塞爾恐攻。IATA預估若無恐攻因素，四月YOY成長率應為5%
The industry-wide load factor came in at 78.9% in the first four months of 2016 as a whole, unchanged from the same period in 2015. However, after reaching an all-time high in November, the seasonally adjusted load factor has eased back in recent months, reflecting a combination of a slight acceleration in capacity growth and a weaker trend in traffic.
2016/1~4月LF 78.9%，較去年沒有改變。去年11月LF達到歷史新高之後，季節調整後的LF近期下滑，顯示出供給量上升及需求走弱。
Annual growth in international RPKs slowed to 4.8% in April, from 6.3% in March – its slowest pace in two years.
全球四月國際RPK為4.8%，較三月6.3%下滑，近二年最低。
International traffic carried by Asia Pacific airlines (the other major international region) rose to 6.4% year-onyear in April (but increased by 8.8% this year-to-date). Slower economic growth in many of the region’s economies has been at least partly offset by the 7.3% increase in the number of direct airport connections within the region, which has helped to stimulate demand by affording time savings for passengers.
亞太區國際客量四月YOY +6.4%，一到四月+8.8%，區域經濟放緩的負面因素和直飛航線增加7.3%的正面因素相抵銷。
AIR FREIGHT MARKET ANALYSIS April 2016
Annual growth in air freight tonne kilometres returned to positive territory in April 2016, as the one-off boost to air freight in early-2015 from disruption at US west coast seaports dropped out of the annual comparison.
隨著一次性的美西塞港事件只到去年三月，四月航空貨運回到正成長。全球四月FTK成長3.2%。
Global trade volumes fell by 1.7% between the final quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016, and declined in year-on-year terms in Q1 for the first time
since the end of 2009.
今年Q1國際貿易較去年下跌1.7%，是2009以來首次下跌的Q1。
Industry-wide freight capacity continued to expand strongly and to trend upwards in April. Total available freight tonne kilometres (AFTKs) increased by 6.6%
year-on-year, with the industry-wide freight load factor coming in at 43.5% – 1.4 percentage points lower than in the same month last year.
四月貨運供給持續強勁成長，全產業AFTK YOY成長6.6%，LF43.5%，YOY下跌1.4%。
Air freight volumes across the Pacific – the largest market in terms of FTKs flown – were more than 13% lower during the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. The next two largest freight markets –those between Europe and Asia, and across the Atlantic – also saw annual declines in FTKs, albeit more modest.
亞太區(最大的FTK區)今年Q1 YOY下跌13%。次大的二個市場歐亞及亞美也下跌。
Collectively, Asia Pacific carriers fly the most international FTKs (around 40% of the total in 2015), but they face headwinds from the weak trade backdrop in
the region. International FTKs in April were broadly unchanged in annual terms from April 2015.
總的來說，亞太航空公司載運最多的國際運量(2015年佔40%)，但貿易疲弱前勢不好，四月國際FTK YOY沒有變化。2016/1~4月亞太區國際FTK YOY-4.8%，AFTK YOY+24.4%。
AIRLINES FINANCIAL MONITOR April 2016 – May 2016
Global airline share prices fell by 3.0% in May, and have now fallen by nearly 11% since the start of the year; However, the latest financial results continue to indicate a robust Q1 2016 for industry profitability;
全球航空公司票價5月下跌3%，今年初以來累計下跌11%。但今年Q1財報顯示產業獲利仍佳。
Brent crude oil prices broke through the $50/bbl mark at the end of May, although the market still expects prices to remain at reasonably low levels for the foreseeable future (below $55/bbl until mid-2018);
布蘭特原油價格5月底升破每桶$50，但市場仍預期可見的未來維持合理低價(每桶$55以下直到2018年中)
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY
New destinations are forecast to rise by 2%+ this year, with frequencies up too. We expect 1% of world GDP to be spent on air transport in 2016, totaling $740 billion. RPKs, which have been growing well above trend despite a sluggish world economy, are forecast to slow this year but remain above-trend at 6.2%. Falling travel costs have been adding several % points to RPK growth over the past year. The average return fare (before surcharges and tax) of
$366 in 2016 is forecast to be 62% lower than 21 years earlier, after adjusting for inflation.
全產業今年預期會新增2%的新航點，航班也會加密。IATA預測2016全球GDP的1%會花在空運上，總計美金$740bn，在全球經濟放緩的情況下持續成長。今年成長力道較小，但預估仍高於長期趨勢，有6.2%。旅行成本下降也帶動RPK成長，預估2016全產業平均來回票價(稅費前)是$366，物價調整後仍較21年前低62%。
Airlines and their customers are forecast to generate $118 billion in tax revenues this year. That’s the equivalent of 45% of the industry’s GVA (Gross Value Added, which is the firm-level equivalent to GDP), paid to governments in payroll, social security, corporate and product taxes (Note that charges for services are excluded).
航空公司及顧客今年預計將產生$118bn的稅收，等同全產業GVA(意近GDP)的45%，都是繳給政府的相關稅費(服務本身費用是除外的)。
The fleet is forecast to increase by over 1100 aircraft to end this year at almost 28,000 aircraft; lower fuel prices will lead to fewer older aircraft leaving the fleet.
今年機隊數預估將上升>1100，來到近28000架，較低的油價使較少的老飛機除役。
We estimate that total employment by airlines will reach 2.61 million this year, a gain of almost 3% compared to 2015. Productivity is expected to be strong, as capacity accelerates in 2016, with the average employee generating almost 500,000 ATKs a year, which is a 3.4% improvement over last year.
IATA預估航空產業今年總計雇用2.61百萬人，較去年上升3%。員工生產力也上升，平均每員工產生500000 ATK，較去年上升3.4%。
資料來源: IATA report (中譯: )
Annual growth in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) dropped to 4.6% in April – its slowest pace since January 2015. The decline was partly attributable to disruption following the Brussels terrorist attacks in March. Abstracting from this, we estimate that passenger volumes grew by around 5% year-on-year in April.
四月RPK YOY成長率下滑來到4.6%，自2015/1最低。部分由於三月的布魯塞爾恐攻。IATA預估若無恐攻因素，四月YOY成長率應為5%
The industry-wide load factor came in at 78.9% in the first four months of 2016 as a whole, unchanged from the same period in 2015. However, after reaching an all-time high in November, the seasonally adjusted load factor has eased back in recent months, reflecting a combination of a slight acceleration in capacity growth and a weaker trend in traffic.
2016/1~4月LF 78.9%，較去年沒有改變。去年11月LF達到歷史新高之後，季節調整後的LF近期下滑，顯示出供給量上升及需求走弱。
Annual growth in international RPKs slowed to 4.8% in April, from 6.3% in March – its slowest pace in two years.
全球四月國際RPK為4.8%，較三月6.3%下滑，近二年最低。
International traffic carried by Asia Pacific airlines (the other major international region) rose to 6.4% year-onyear in April (but increased by 8.8% this year-to-date). Slower economic growth in many of the region’s economies has been at least partly offset by the 7.3% increase in the number of direct airport connections within the region, which has helped to stimulate demand by affording time savings for passengers.
亞太區國際客量四月YOY +6.4%，一到四月+8.8%，區域經濟放緩的負面因素和直飛航線增加7.3%的正面因素相抵銷。
AIR FREIGHT MARKET ANALYSIS April 2016
Annual growth in air freight tonne kilometres returned to positive territory in April 2016, as the one-off boost to air freight in early-2015 from disruption at US west coast seaports dropped out of the annual comparison.
隨著一次性的美西塞港事件只到去年三月，四月航空貨運回到正成長。全球四月FTK成長3.2%。
Global trade volumes fell by 1.7% between the final quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016, and declined in year-on-year terms in Q1 for the first time
since the end of 2009.
今年Q1國際貿易較去年下跌1.7%，是2009以來首次下跌的Q1。
Industry-wide freight capacity continued to expand strongly and to trend upwards in April. Total available freight tonne kilometres (AFTKs) increased by 6.6%
year-on-year, with the industry-wide freight load factor coming in at 43.5% – 1.4 percentage points lower than in the same month last year.
四月貨運供給持續強勁成長，全產業AFTK YOY成長6.6%，LF43.5%，YOY下跌1.4%。
Air freight volumes across the Pacific – the largest market in terms of FTKs flown – were more than 13% lower during the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. The next two largest freight markets –those between Europe and Asia, and across the Atlantic – also saw annual declines in FTKs, albeit more modest.
亞太區(最大的FTK區)今年Q1 YOY下跌13%。次大的二個市場歐亞及亞美也下跌。
Collectively, Asia Pacific carriers fly the most international FTKs (around 40% of the total in 2015), but they face headwinds from the weak trade backdrop in
the region. International FTKs in April were broadly unchanged in annual terms from April 2015.
總的來說，亞太航空公司載運最多的國際運量(2015年佔40%)，但貿易疲弱前勢不好，四月國際FTK YOY沒有變化。2016/1~4月亞太區國際FTK YOY-4.8%，AFTK YOY+24.4%。
AIRLINES FINANCIAL MONITOR April 2016 – May 2016
Global airline share prices fell by 3.0% in May, and have now fallen by nearly 11% since the start of the year; However, the latest financial results continue to indicate a robust Q1 2016 for industry profitability;
全球航空公司票價5月下跌3%，今年初以來累計下跌11%。但今年Q1財報顯示產業獲利仍佳。
Brent crude oil prices broke through the $50/bbl mark at the end of May, although the market still expects prices to remain at reasonably low levels for the foreseeable future (below $55/bbl until mid-2018);
布蘭特原油價格5月底升破每桶$50，但市場仍預期可見的未來維持合理低價(每桶$55以下直到2018年中)
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY
New destinations are forecast to rise by 2%+ this year, with frequencies up too. We expect 1% of world GDP to be spent on air transport in 2016, totaling $740 billion. RPKs, which have been growing well above trend despite a sluggish world economy, are forecast to slow this year but remain above-trend at 6.2%. Falling travel costs have been adding several % points to RPK growth over the past year. The average return fare (before surcharges and tax) of
$366 in 2016 is forecast to be 62% lower than 21 years earlier, after adjusting for inflation.
全產業今年預期會新增2%的新航點，航班也會加密。IATA預測2016全球GDP的1%會花在空運上，總計美金$740bn，在全球經濟放緩的情況下持續成長。今年成長力道較小，但預估仍高於長期趨勢，有6.2%。旅行成本下降也帶動RPK成長，預估2016全產業平均來回票價(稅費前)是$366，物價調整後仍較21年前低62%。
Airlines and their customers are forecast to generate $118 billion in tax revenues this year. That’s the equivalent of 45% of the industry’s GVA (Gross Value Added, which is the firm-level equivalent to GDP), paid to governments in payroll, social security, corporate and product taxes (Note that charges for services are excluded).
航空公司及顧客今年預計將產生$118bn的稅收，等同全產業GVA(意近GDP)的45%，都是繳給政府的相關稅費(服務本身費用是除外的)。
The fleet is forecast to increase by over 1100 aircraft to end this year at almost 28,000 aircraft; lower fuel prices will lead to fewer older aircraft leaving the fleet.
今年機隊數預估將上升>1100，來到近28000架，較低的油價使較少的老飛機除役。
We estimate that total employment by airlines will reach 2.61 million this year, a gain of almost 3% compared to 2015. Productivity is expected to be strong, as capacity accelerates in 2016, with the average employee generating almost 500,000 ATKs a year, which is a 3.4% improvement over last year.
IATA預估航空產業今年總計雇用2.61百萬人，較去年上升3%。員工生產力也上升，平均每員工產生500000 ATK，較去年上升3.4%。
資料來源: IATA report (中譯: )